The value of estimating

January 10th, 2010

Guess what? The cute little 8 year old girl in our neighborhood came up all wide eyed and excited and said “Scotty, scotty (her dad told her I am a Scot) “guest what” I just saw?” I looked at her and noted (1) she came from the vicinity of her uncle’s house and (2) that she was more excited than normal. Since I knew she is afraid of big animals, I said “You saw a rhinoceros on the roof of your uncle’s house.” She said, oh, don’t be silly.”

We make guesses or estimates every day, in many cases without even realizing that is what we are doing. Making an estimate to check reasonableness is a valuable tool, to save money and/or to keep one out of trouble. For example if you go into the cafe and order two hot dogs and a chocolate shake, and the waiter wants to charge you $14.73, I hope while you are waiting you have estimated what you are probably going to have to pay for this junk food. If you are like me, you have already made a “rough estimate” or guess of what to expect. What is a reasonable amount? The hot dogs are maybe $1.65 each or around $3.00 and change and the shake maybe $2.82 depending on size. Tax at 7% may run the bill up to somewhere between $5.00 and $7.00. So you quite rightly buck on the $14.73

Our electronic manufacturing services business, Global Manufacturing Sevices, requires us to constantly fine tune our estimating skills. We quote jobs using a very good set of spread sheets that aids us in the task. We go out to our suppliers to get parts cost. We count parts on the bill of materials (BOM) and try to get an idea (estimate) of how much labor it will take to assemble the circuit boards. We add our known overhead and come up with a figure, but then we run a reasonableness test to see if it makes sense. We compare our price with that of other similar circuit boards we have built. We ask our selves what we can reasonably charge if we filled up the factory with 100% of this product. No one technique gives us the final answer, but we usually come up with a pretty good estimate of what the cost should be.

I went for the rhinoceros ladder, but when I got to her uncle’s house down the street, a water buffalo had slid down the roof of the house and had fallen through the roof of the porch onto the deck below. Well, at least my guess was partly right. It was a large animal!

GMSWW can do these things

October 5th, 2009

We are sometimes asked what type things can we do at our factory in West Jefferson, North Carolina.  I have briefly listed the primary items below.

RoHS, I.e. lead free assemblies with no up charge or leaded assemblies if that is required..

KanBan and order fulfillment for delivery to you for your just in time requirements.

Electromechanical assembly including light press work and light welding.

Full “box build” which works well when you would like us to put your finished goods on our shelf and then ship direct to your customer as you require.

Excellent MRP system to interface with your MRP system for low error rates.

Excellent, modern equipment with skilled operators to operate and manage assembly. We’re able to assemble very large SMT boards: 20 inches by 24 inches.

Great materials purchasing department to source components from around the globe.

Serious about ISO quality without the chaff and cost associated with lesser quality systems.

Employees with great work ethic, and always eager to get it right.

Reliable, honest customer service that makes the best look mediocre.

Fast quoting with your circuit board Gerbers and Bill of Materials.

Our low overhead assures you of competitive pricing.

I hope that you will soon let Global Manufacturing Services, Inc., GMSWW quote a project for you

Is inflation on the horizon?

July 12th, 2009

Now that the economy is improving, and energy prices rising, why would we think prices won’t rise on everything except maybe home sales? I predict that prices will rise by 2% within the next six months. Already we are seeing higher prices for the materials we purchase for our electronics assembly business, circuit boards, flux, solder, electronic components and wire. In the near future any raw material that has a significant energy component in the cost of its manufacture will be much more expensive. We are hearing that we should expect a 40% increase in electricity prices, especially in areas which rely on coal fired electrical generators. We know that will drive prices up. Fortunately we get a good portion of our electricity from Duke Energy who has nuclear powered generators.

What about freight? Petroleum prices are already on their way higher. This will make our domestic manufacturing more competitive with offshore competition, but what percentage increase in domestic freight costs do we expect, 10%, 20% or more? Who knows, but as we have learned to run a lean organization here at gmsww.com during this shabby economy; we will be prepared to get along as well or better than many.

Tough times brings out the bad guys

July 6th, 2009

We take an order from a major corporation and it clearly says on our quote that we gave them; that the terms are 30 days net.  Their purchase order says terms are 30 days.  Then when they don’t pay in 30 days, we get informed by their accountant that they NOW pay in 60 days.   Is it fair, hell no.  Is it real life?  You bet.  We are small, they are large, so they do whatever they like.  They just gave themselves a loan on our back.  Do we have any sympathy for the big crooks that are struggling … Get real!!!! 

Circuit board prototyping necessary for new development

November 7th, 2008

Before one introduces a new product, several stages of researh and development are necessary.  First someone has to come up with an idea for a product that meets some perceived need or want.  Then the idea has to be researched to be sure that the idea can be reduced to practice without violating someone’s patent.  Once that hurdle has been overcome, then the idea has to be put to paper to get some idea of cost and estimated time for product introduction.  More in next post.

Global Manufacturing Services, Inc., your first stop for prototyping.

Commodity prices are falling, where are our lower prices?

October 28th, 2008

The way commodity prices are falling, you would think we would start seeing some price reductions for electronic components that use these commodities, like copper wire, transformers, RoHS solder paste with the copper and silver, etc., bare circuit boards, even resistors, ICs and on and on. We suspect that like gas prices, when the commodity prices go up, component prices go up quickly, but as the commoditu prices come down there is an intentional lag for maximum profit margins. Is that being cynical or just calling a spade a spade? If this is the case, is it the component manufacturers or the distributors that’s fleecing us?

In any case we are on the prowl for suppliers that are agressively working to get the prices down as fast as possible.

If you are a supplier reading this, and you are working hard to get component prices to more realisticaly reflect current commodituy prices, then give us a call at 336 246 5143 and let us know about your competitive pricing.